Posts Tagged ‘consensus’

Scientists Pull an About Face on Global Warming

Church of Darwin, s8int.com, Science, Unexplained Artifact | Posted by Chris Parker
Sep 22 2009


By Lorne Gunter, For The Calgary Herald, September 19, 2009

Imagine if Pope Benedict gave a speech saying the Catholic Church has had it wrong all these centuries; there is no reason priests shouldn’t marry. That might generate the odd headline, no?

Or if Don Cherry claimed suddenly to like European hockey players who wear visors and float around the ice, never bodychecking opponents.

Or Jack Layton insisted that unions are ruining the economy by distorting wages and protecting unproductive workers.

Or Stephen Harper began arguing that it makes good economic sense for Ottawa to own a car company. (Oh, wait, that one happened.) But at least, the Tories-buy-GM aberration made all the papers and newscasts.

When a leading proponent for one point of view suddenly starts batting for the other side, it’s usually newsworthy.

So why was a speech last week by Prof. Mojib Latif of Germany’s Leibniz Institute not given more prominence?

Latif is one of the leading climate modellers in the world. He is the recipient of several international climate-study prizes and a lead author for the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). He has contributed significantly to the IPCC’s last two five-year reports that have stated unequivocally that man-made greenhouse emissions are causing the planet to warm dangerously.

Yet last week in Geneva, at the UN’s World Climate Conference–an annual gathering of the so-called “scientific consensus” on man-made climate change –Latif conceded the Earth has not warmed for nearly a decade and that we are likely entering “one or even two decades during which temperatures cool.”

The global warming theory has been based all along on the idea that the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans would absorb much of the greenhouse warming caused by a rise in man-made carbon dioxide, then they would let off that heat and warm the atmosphere and the land.

But as Latif pointed out, the Atlantic, and particularly the North Atlantic, has been cooling instead. And it looks set to continue a cooling phase for 10 to 20 more years.

“How much?” he wondered before the assembled delegates. “The jury is still out.”

But it is increasingly clear that global warming is on hiatus for the time being. And that is not what the UN, the alarmist scientists or environmentalists predicted. For the past dozen years, since the Kyoto accords were signed in 1997, it has been beaten into our heads with the force and repetition of the rowing drum on a slave galley that the Earth is warming and will continue to warm rapidly through this century until we reach deadly temperatures around 2100.

While they deny it now, the facts to the contrary are staring them in the face: None of the alarmist drummers ever predicted anything like a 30-year pause in their apocalyptic scenario.

Latif says he expects warming to resume in 2020 or 2030.

In the past year, two other groups of scientists–one in Germany, the second in the United States–have come to the same conclusion: Warming is on hold, likely because of a cooling of the Earth’s upper oceans, but it will resume.

But how is that knowable? How can Latif and the others state with certainty that after this long and unforeseen cooling, dangerous man-made heating will resume? They failed to observe the current cooling for years after it had begun, how then can their predictions for the resumption of dangerous warming be trusted?

My point is they cannot. It’s true the supercomputer models Latif and other modellers rely on for their dire predictions are becoming more accurate. But getting the future correct is far trickier. Chances are some unforeseen future changes will throw the current predictions out of whack long before the forecast resumption of warming.

Lorne Gunter is a columnist with the Edmonton Journal and National Post.

See Also: All The Really Smart People Believe in Man-Made Global Warming

All the Really Smart People Believe in Man-Made Global Warming

Amusing?, Church of Darwin, s8int.com, Science, Uncategorized | Posted by Chris Parker
Mar 19 2009


Painting: The Great Day of His Wrath, by John Martin

All the really smart people believe in man-made global warming.

Smart people believe in evolution too. Some of them also believe in God but certainly not one of them believes that men and dinosaurs lived together. Remember the laughs the smart people in politics and the media got out of Alaska governor Sarah Palin’s comments that she believed that man and dinosaurs had interacted? Maybe she could see dinosaurs from her back porch?

When I say smart, I mean smart in a worldly way. I mean smartness, not wisdom. There is a funny thing about smart people, though; its often pointed out that smart people are easier to fool than non-smart people. This can be put down to the fact that they believe that they are too smart to fool. They believe too much in their own capabilities.

Clever or smart people I’m told, are easier to con—they trust their own judgment too much-while the not-so-smart don’t trust their own judgment. Sometimes, it is said that they don’t even understand the “great” opportunity that is being presented to them so that they can be swindled.

Some “hypnotizers” claim that it is easier to hypnotize the smart because smart people have more preconceptions about the way the world works and thus, it is sometimes easier to prey on those misconceptions.

What does it feel like to be smart like that? Obviously, I wouldn’t know but as the old line goes;
*hey, the smartest man in the world just jumped out of the plane with my backback!

Certainly, the Bible makes the case for Godly wisdom over worldly knowledge;

1 Cor 3
Do not deceive yourselves. If any one of you thinks he is wise by the standards of this age, he should become a “fool” so that he may become wise. For the wisdom of this world is foolishness in God’s sight. As it is written: “He catches the wise in their craftiness”; and again, “The Lord knows that the thoughts of the wise are futile.”

Smart people smart a little bit whenever they see a poll showing that a majority of American’s believe in God and disbelieve evolution. For instance a recent poll in Britain found widespread belief in creationism. The majority believed that an intelligence was involved in creation even though only 33% or so believe that the world was created less than 10,000 years ago. Polling of Americans has been even stronger in favor of creationism and God with a majority (79% in Nationwide poll in 2000) favoring that creation be taught along with evolution. Smart people must smart over the fact that approximately the same percentage of scientists believe in God as does the general population.

The British survey caused famous Atheist and smart person Richard Dawkins to say that Britons were “pig ignorant” about science. Then he went out on his stoop and yelled at passing teenagers to “get off his lawn”!

Smart people believe in consensus. There is a scientific consensus on evolution, on global warming, on the creation of the universe etc. But as the late Michael Crichton said;

“I regard consensus science as an extremely pernicious development that ought to be stopped cold in its tracks. Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled. Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you’re being had.

“Let’s be clear: the work of science has nothing whatever to do with consensus. Consensus is the business of politics. Science, on the contrary, requires only one investigator who happens to be right, which means that he or she has results that are verifiable by reference to the real world.

In science consensus is irrelevant. What is relevant is reproducible results. The greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with the consensus. There is no such thing as consensus science. If it’s consensus, it isn’t science. If it’s science, it isn’t consensus. Period.”

Why don’t many Christians go along with the consensus on man made global warming? It’s not because Christians are opposed to lowering harmful emissions like carbon dioxide and other air pollutants, it is because Christians know how the world will end—and it will not be because of global warming; though warming of the globe will be involved;

2 Peter 3 10

But the day of the Lord will come like a thief. The heavens will disappear with a roar; the elements will be destroyed by fire, and the earth and everything in it will be laid bare. Since everything will be destroyed in this way, what kind of people ought you to be? You ought to live holy and godly lives as you look forward to the day of God and speed its coming.

That day will bring about the destruction of the heavens by fire, and the elements will melt in the heat. “

Predictions of Catastrophic Global Temperature Change in the 1960’s and 1970’s

Really smart people tell us that the earth is 4.5 billion years old. Yet these same people are predicting the end of all things based on the supposed global temperature increase of at most, several decades. If the earth is really 4.5 billion years old, then the period in question is less than .000111% of its life and akin to you or I going into full panic mode because our forehead felt a little warm a second ago.

In the 1960’s and 1970’s, all the way through 1977, scientists and other smart people were very concerned about global temperature change then as well—only at that time the consensus was that we were heading towards an inevitable ice age; leading to gross planetary disruptions; global famines, war over scarce resources and population dislocations.

It seems to me that a brief survey of news articles during that period; showing what the consensus and the smart people had to say then would put the words of the current scientific consensus in some perspective. It may be that some scientist’s career spanned the period beginning in the 1960’s until today and that he/she was able to sound dire warnings for both global cooling and global warming—always safe within the consensus!

Weather Bureau Studies Grinnell Glacier
Montana Standard-Post 9/4/1966

The article stated that global warming had been a concern earlier in the century but that the planet had undergone ”global cooling” which had reduced temperatures 1degree in the past 20 years.

Pollution Ice Age? Star-News 1/26/1970

A new Ice Age may be breathing down our necks. This warning doesn’t come from hippie haired zealots with sandwich boards proclaiming, “The End is Near.” As most of the nation shivers through one of the severest winters on record (a situation which has not reached this area as yet), scientists are seriously speculating about the long-term effects of a global cooling ‘trend.

Some see links between it and air pollution. There is considerable debate about the meaning of data on hand. Scientists do agree, however, that in the last 30 years or so, the average temperature of the. world as a whole has dropped by one-third ‘ to one-half degree Centigrade. Such a decrease doesn’t look like much until it is ‘noted that the last Ice Age, about 10,000 years ago, resulted from a temperature drop of only 4 or 5 degrees.

Gordon J. F. MacDonald, vice-chancellor for research at UC Santa Barbara, puts it this way: “The answer is by no means clear, but there is increasing evidence that urban and industrial pollution, perhaps aided by agricultural pollution, is in large part responsible for decreasing the surface temperature at a rate compared with the effect of carbon dioxide in increasing temperature.

It’s Getting Colder
The Daily Courier, 1/13/1971
Scientists Say Warmer Ocean May Be Villain in Record Chill

The most frequently heard explanation these days is that air pollution is blotting out part of the sunlight. It also has been suggested that i n c r e a s e d volcanic dust may be doing the same thing. A third idea is that we may be experiencing a cyclical variation in the sun’s energy output. That is, the solar rays simply aren’t as hot right now as they are sometimes.

……. The theory of the apparent link between global wind flow and the emerging cooling trend casts considerable doubt on the arguments that air pollution and volcanic activity have much if anything to do with the nation’s icebox weather conditions, …..

The Earth Is Cooling, Return of Ice Age Is Feared
Iowa City Press-Citizen 4/14/1973

Snow cover remaining on Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic after the summer melt-off of 1979 is in sharp contrast to the same area, relatively snow-free, seen in an aerial photo taken a decade earlier. Reflection of sunlight off such year-round snow cover is considered a possible contribution to further global cooling.

Solid information is scarce. But whatever its cause, many of the scientists who concern themselves with studying the earth’s climate balance and the glaciers that once covered much of the Northern Hemisphere are no longer asking whether another great glaciation is on the way; they are asking rather: When? And why?

…..The threat, according to scientists from a score of institutions who gathered at Brown University in Providence, R.I., recently to share information on “The End of the Present Interglacial,” is not that miles thick ice sheets are about to come sweeping down out of the north, returning us instantaneously to an ice-age climate. It is rather that there are already signs the earth is cooling in a cycle similar to those that heralded earlier great glaciations.

…..Fairbridge declares “Global climatic change constitutes a first, order environmental hazard,” the scientists who gathered at Providence declared at the end of their deliberations.

….”Is man,” Kukla, Matthews and Mitchell ask, “prepared to face the natural changes of climate
likely to follow in the centuries ahead?”

They fear that the answer is; no; not yet.

Winnipeg Free Press
6/22/1974

Climate specialists said a global cooling trend has lowered the earth’s temperature 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit since 1945 and may spread drought conditions though the semi-arid regions of Asia and South America.

The warning flags of inevitable crisis are up, Dr .Patrick McTaggart-Cowan of the Science Council of Canada, a former meteorologist, said of worldwide agricultural prospects In a recent McGill University convocation address.

First Half of Century Unusually Mild
Global Climate Begins to Return to Harsher State
Edwardsville Intelligencer, The 8/1/74

For the long run, there is mounting evidence of a Worldwide cooling trend. The average
temperature of the world as a whole has dropped by one-third to one-half degree Centigrade in the last 30 years. “The decline of prevailing temperatures since about 1945 appears to be the longest continued downward trend since, said a spokesman for the view that manmade atmospheric pollution has changed the global climate.

Fossil-fuel burning, mechanized agricultural opertions, accidental forest fires, and the
primitive slash-and-burn land clearing method still widely practiced in the tropics have
increased the amount of dust in the atmosphere, Bryson says, causing more sunlight to be reflected into space and lowering earth’s temperature.

Post-Standard, The 8/3/74

“It is something that, if it continues, will affect the whole human occupation of the earth — like many millions of people starving. The effects are already showing up in rather drastic ways.”

Viewed from the perspective of thousands of years, the first half of this century was an extraordinary, having a brief interlude of exceptionally warm and benign weather. The warming trend peaked in about 1945, and temperatures have been dropping since.

The total drop has been about 2,7 degrees Farenheit — hardly enough to conjure images of the glaciers that crept over North America 10,000 years ago.

News Journal 12/19/1974

Climatologists claim that earth had been in a cooling period from the 15th century until 1890—then a warming trend from 1890 until 1945 from which temps have declined 2.7 degrees farenheit. Global cooling could have tragic effects on the world’s food supply

Cedar Rapids Gazette
Bad Weather Cited
Food Crisis Factor 2/9/1975

BAJA CALIFORNIA, Mexico — An Iowa State university agriculturist reported here recently that “unfavorable weather has been the major factor in causing the present world food crisis.” Louis M. Thompson, associate dean of agriculture at the university, discussed weather variables and resulting effects on world agriculture at a workshop studying world food supply problems.

Thompson is one of 12 scientists participating in the three-day program which Is sponsored by the Wright-Ingraham Institute of Colorado Springs, Colo., a non-profit organization to promote opportunities for serving human andnatural resources.

In an analysis of global weather patterns, Thompson said cooling and warming trends are unpredictable and “the only feature which allows prediction with confidence is that of change.” He reminded his fellow scientists, “We must accept the fact that a cooling trend could continue to the end of this century (with) Important effects on agriculture.”

The Lincoln Star,
Wednesday, July 02, 1975 Lincoln, Nebraska
Global famine and a mass freezing to death unless humans develop ways to survive

It’s almost impossible to describe any scientific debate as raging but the controversy over when the world will enter another and terrible ice age has become the rage in recent months because of recent findings. Oddly a vast chill has been the normal condition of earth during the last two million years. During that time the world has been cold more than it has been warm.

The Anderson Herald,
Thursday, June 17, 1976 Anderson, Indiana
A Global cooling trend that began in the 1940s.

Advocates of this theory predict that the worldwide temperature drop could usher in a Ice Age similar to one that lasted from 1600 to 1850. A CIA report supporting the thesis was released last month. It warned that world food supplies could be threatened if the cooling trend continued. The stability of most nations is based upon a dependable source of food but this stability will not be possible under the new climate the report said.

Des Moines Register, The
1/17/1977
Problems of Cold Climate

….would be populations of animals, wild and domestic, since competition for productive land surface would be quickly felt by man. “The raising of food animals would be too inefficient in an era of land
scarcity and man would have to exist on a vegetation and or synthetic diet. The management of four or more billion people on the productivity which would become available below ‘the Fortieth Parallel would require the highest forms of technology.

“Without disciplined worldwide planning, it is estimated that half the world’s population could die through war, fighting on a smaller scale, or cold.”

Scientists Ask Why World Climate Is Changing; Major Cooling May Be Ahead; Scientists Ponder Why World’s Climate Is Changing; a Major Cooling Widely Considered to Be Inevitable
By WALTER SULLIVAN
The New York Times
May 21, 1975, Wednesday

The world’s climate is changing. Of that scientists are firmly convinced. But in what direction and why are subjects of deepening debate.

There are specialists who say that a new ice age is on the way the inevitable consequence of a natural cyclic process, or as a result of man-made pollution of the atmosphere.

And there are those who say that such pollution may actually head off an ice age.

Sooner or later a major cooling of the climate is widely considered inevitable. Hints that it may already have begun are evident.

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*A doctor, a physicist, a Boy Scout, and a minister were out for a Sunday afternoon flight on a small private plane. Suddenly, the plane developed engine trouble. The pilot did his best, but the plane started to go down. The pilot grabbed a parachute, told the passengers that they’d better jump, and jumped himself.

But there were only three parachutes left. The doctor grabbed one and said “I’m a doctor! I save lives, so I have to live,” and jumped out. The physicist said, “I’m the smartest person in the world, I deserve to live!” He grabbed a parachute and jumped, too.

The minister looked at the Boy Scout and said, “Son, I’ve lived a long and full life. You’re young and have your whole life ahead of you. Take the last parachute and live in peace.” The Boy Scout handed the parachute back to the minister and said “Take it. ‘The smartest person in the world’ just jumped out of the plane with my back pack.”